I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and tell you I don't have any factual data but I do have personal experience. I got my first skin cancer at age 60 after spending my life in Florida camping and going to the beach and not using sunscreen. I too have fair skin, freckles and moles, blue eyes and brown hair, but my father had red hair and he had skin cancer and I have his skin type.
Everyone is at risk for skin cancer and you sow the seeds in your youth by going to the beach and baking, spending hours outdoors without protection and so forth. The good news is that early detection is easy. Whenever you go to the doctor for your check up, have him or her look at any spots you're concerned about. I know 40 years sounds like a long way off, but you can wear sunscreen and a hat when you're out and protect yourself now while you are young. I now go to the doctor regularly and he zaps those spots before they get started. I plan to live for a long time yet. Good luck.